01/
Equity markets posted strong gains over the quarter, though leadership remained narrow. The rally was driven largely by the global artificial intelligence (AI) theme and a sharp surge in Canada’s gold sector.
02/
The AI narrative continues to drive performance across multiple sectors—including technology, industrials, materials (notably uranium), and even utilities. While we view this as a positive structural trend, we remain mindful of concentration risk and have implemented hedges within our risk framework to manage exposure to this single theme.
03/
Canadian gold stocks delivered explosive returns, with several names rising more than 50% during the quarter. Our portfolio maintains a healthy allocation to gold; however, our emphasis on high-quality producers—characterized by lower debt, efficient operations, and improving fundamentals—lagged the lower-quality, more speculative names that led the rally.
04/
As the quarter progressed, market momentum rotated toward more speculative factors, fueled by growing expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. This backdrop favored higher-beta, more volatile names, which we selectively avoided in keeping with our disciplined investment approach.
05/
We continue to emphasize quality and positive change in our long positions while actively managing exposures through both fundamental short positions and tactical hedges—particularly as market drivers become increasingly sentiment-driven.
Over the past quarter, we have seen global GDP estimates revised down, inflation data crept slightly higher, and central banks tilted their policies to an easing bias. In the meantime, global equity markets continued their march higher, led by the AI plays. While there is some froth in the market and the risk continues to build, especially in the more speculative investments, the catalyst for a general sell-off is not evident yet.
We believe there is a higher likelihood for some acceleration looking ahead given global fiscal and monetary stimulus is primed to benefit the economy in fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026. That said, we remain somewhat cautious given stretched equity valuations and a multitude of short-term stagflationary risks (i.e. sticky inflation, moderating growth given U.S. tariff impacts and an acceleration in jobless claims) that the market is largely discounting. As a result, we continue to focus on our core discipline of identifying idiosyncratic growth stories at the company level that are largely isolated from many of the major macroeconomic risks.
As of September 30, 2025 (%) | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1YR | 3YR* | 5YR* | Since Inception* | Inception Date |
PICTON Global Equity Fund (F) | 4.27 | 6.70 | 15.58 | 23.75 | 23.07 | 15.11 | 11.11 | (2015-10-29) |
PICTON Long Short Equity 130/30 Alternative Fund (F) | 4.54 | 10.31 | 21.49 | 26.58 | 22.73 | 18.60 | 15.31 | (2018-09-27) |
PICTON Market Neutral Equity Alternative Fund (F) | 0.86 | 1.20 | 4.48 | 7.67 | 7.74 | 7.95 | 7.88 | (2018-09-27) |
PICTON Long Short Equity Alternative Fund (F) | 2.55 | 4.84 | 12.24 | 14.82 | 14.07 | 13.98 | 14.97 | (2020-07-08) |
(*) Annualized performance.
Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management
This material has been published by Picton Mahoney Asset Management (“PMAM”) as at October 10, 2025. It is provided as a general source of information, is subject to change without notification and should not be construed as investment advice. This material should not be relied upon for any investment decision and is not a recommendation, solicitation or offering of any security in any jurisdiction. The information contained in this material has been obtained from sources believed reliable, however, the accuracy and/or completeness of the information is not guaranteed by PMAM, nor does PMAM assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever. All investments involve risk and may lose value. This information is not intended to provide financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice specific to any person, and should not be relied upon in that regard. Tax, investment and all other decisions should be made, as appropriate, only with guidance from a qualified professional.
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