How is the S&P 500 climbing while consumers are struggling financially?
Shechar Dworski, PhD, CFA – Head of Economics and Director, Macro Strategy
How Could Upcoming IPOs Shape the AI Sector?
Sean Handrahan, Sector Head, Technology
Paul Tudor Jones recently warned that an incoming wave of landmark IPOs could contribute to a market selloff of 30% to 35%, and eventually a bear market1. He estimated that IPOs contemplated over the next year represent 5% to 6% of total market capitalization, naming SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI among them, and argued that much of the funding for these offerings will come directly out of existing technology stocks. Below, we take closer look at the possible impact that these upcoming IPOs may have on the AI trade and the overall market.
SpaceX stock began trading publicly on June 12 (marking what is possibly the largest IPO in history with a valuation of USD $1.77 trillion), while OpenAI and Anthropic have filed privately with expectations their debuts will follow after the summer. Across a broad sample of major technology IPOs from the past two decades, they’ve shown volatile initial performance, with an average maximum drawdown from a peak within the first year reached 55%. Lockup expirations, typically arriving six months after listing, tend to release another surge of supply at that point.
Several of the Magnificent 7 companies are pausing buybacks while directing capital toward AI infrastructure spending. The reduction in this demand source into the S&P 500 Index is not enormous in isolation, but it arrives alongside the supply increase that Tudor Jones describes, and the combination is what gives his thesis its force.
Semiconductor stocks have surged nearly 100% in 2026, anchored by conviction that accelerating revenue at companies like Anthropic justifies the scale of datacenter investment underway. However, we are cognizant that if that revenue growth begins to slow in the six to nine months ahead, exactly when peak equity supply from these listings arrives, it could create a fragile setup. That is the risk we are monitoring.
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All data sourced from Picton Mahoney Asset Management Research and Bloomberg Inc. unless otherwise cited, as of June 12, 2026
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